Rain
Total rainfall of 3.4 mm expected (100% probability). Harvest planning, spray timing and storage of wet produce may be affected.
AGRICULTURAL WEATHER
Elmalı weather and frost risk
Tonight's expected low in Elmalı is 11.0 °C (at 07:00); frost risk: none. Below: the hourly forecast, 7-day rain and wind, and the best hours for spraying.
Tonight between 18:00 and 09:00
No frost expected
Night temperatures stay clearly above the frost threshold.
- 11.0 °C
- lowest around 07:00
- 76%
- Cloud cover
- 8
- Wind km/s
Rain next 24 hours
Rain expected
3.1 mm of rain is expected over the next 24 hours. Harvest and spray timing should be reviewed; produce picked wet deteriorates faster in storage and transit.
- 3.1 mm
- Expected total
- 100%
- Peak probability
- 14:00
- Starts
- 5
- Wet hours
Elmalı — Next 24 hours
12:00
19°
15%
13:00
20°
35%
14:00
18°
73%
0.5 mm
15:00
17°
95%
0.7 mm
16:00
16°
100%
1.2 mm
17:00
15°
93%
0.6 mm
18:00
15°
75%
0.1 mm
19:00
15°
35%
20:00
14°
28%
21:00
14°
25%
22:00
13°
10%
23:00
13°
3%
00:00
13°
0%
01:00
13°
0%
02:00
12°
0%
03:00
12°
0%
04:00
12°
0%
05:00
11°
0%
06:00
11°
0%
07:00
11°
0%
08:00
12°
0%
09:00
13°
0%
10:00
15°
0%
11:00
17°
0%
under 25% · low 25–60% · possible over 60% · likely
Bar height shows the chance of rain in that hour. When 0.1 mm or more is expected, the amount is printed below the bar.
Elmalı — Spraying window
No suitable window in the next 24 hours
Every hour falls outside at least one threshold. The strip below shows what rules out each hour.
Delta T is the gap between dry-bulb and wet-bulb temperature. It shows how much a droplet evaporates before it reaches the target: too high and the spray evaporates and drifts as vapour, too low and the droplet stays suspended instead of settling.
12:00
6.5
10 km/s
Not suitable
rain — wash-off
13:00
6.9
11 km/s
Not suitable
rain — wash-off
14:00
5.8
12 km/s
Not suitable
rain — wash-off
15:00
4.6
10 km/s
Not suitable
rain — wash-off
16:00
2.5
5 km/s
Not suitable
rain — wash-off
17:00
2.6
3 km/s
Not suitable
rain — wash-off
18:00
2.8
2 km/s
Marginal
still air — inversion risk
19:00
2.4
1 km/s
Marginal
still air — inversion risk
20:00
1.6
3 km/s
Marginal
droplets stay suspended
21:00
1.1
3 km/s
Marginal
droplets stay suspended
22:00
1.0
2 km/s
Marginal
droplets stay suspended
23:00
1.2
2 km/s
Marginal
droplets stay suspended
00:00
1.2
2 km/s
Marginal
droplets stay suspended
01:00
1.0
3 km/s
Marginal
droplets stay suspended
02:00
0.8
4 km/s
Marginal
droplets stay suspended
03:00
0.7
2 km/s
Marginal
droplets stay suspended
04:00
0.9
3 km/s
Marginal
droplets stay suspended
05:00
0.7
3 km/s
Marginal
droplets stay suspended
06:00
0.9
4 km/s
Marginal
droplets stay suspended
07:00
0.8
2 km/s
Marginal
droplets stay suspended
08:00
1.0
2 km/s
Marginal
droplets stay suspended
09:00
1.8
3 km/s
Marginal
droplets stay suspended
10:00
2.7
2 km/s
Marginal
still air — inversion risk
11:00
4.2
3 km/s
Marginal
still air — inversion risk
Delta T °C · Wind km/s
Spraying thresholds
- Delta T 2 – 8 °C
- Ideal range. Droplets live long enough to reach the target.
- Delta T 8 – 10 °C
- Marginal. Workable with coarse droplets and low pressure; fine sprays are not advised.
- Delta T above 10 °C
- Droplets evaporate before reaching the target and the product drifts away as vapour. Do not apply.
- Delta T below 2 °C
- Air is saturated. Fine droplets stay airborne instead of settling, raising drift risk.
- Wind 3 – 15 km/h
- Ideal range. Drift starts above 15 km/h; above 20 km/h do not apply.
- Wind below 3 km/h
- Still air is not safe: under a clear sky a temperature inversion forms and fine droplets travel sideways instead of settling.
- Rain
- If 0.2 mm or more is expected during the hour of application or the two hours after it, the product washes off.
Thresholds follow the Montana State University Extension guidance on pesticide drift. Wet-bulb temperature is computed with the Stull (2011) approximation.
Elmalı — Seven-day forecast
Scroll the table sideways
| Day | Low | High | Rain | Probability | Wind sust./gust | Warning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27.09 Sunday | 12.9 °C | 19.6 °C | 3.4 mm | 100% | 12/26 km/s | Rain |
| 28.09 Monday | 11.0 °C | 20.5 °C | 0.0 mm | 0% | 15/28 km/s | Windy |
| 29.09 Tuesday | 9.5 °C | 23.0 °C | 0.0 mm | 38% | 6/15 km/s | — |
| 30.09 Wednesday | 10.5 °C | 20.3 °C | 3.9 mm | 96% | 10/18 km/s | Rain |
| 01.10 Thursday | 10.1 °C | 18.5 °C | 1.2 mm | 69% | 12/22 km/s | — |
| 02.10 Friday | 11.5 °C | 15.4 °C | 0.9 mm | 38% | 9/22 km/s | — |
| 03.10 Saturday | 11.4 °C | 16.6 °C | 3.0 mm | 35% | 7/17 km/s | Rain |
General sensitivity thresholds
These are widely accepted reference ranges in the sector; they vary with variety, growth stage and the position of the orchard.
- Greenhouse vegetables (tomato, pepper, aubergine, cucumber)
- Chilling injury can occur between 0 and 2 °C even without frost, leaving marks on leaves and fruit.
- Citrus (lemon, orange, mandarin)
- Fruit damage generally begins below −2 °C. Lemon is the most sensitive of the group; tree age and fruit maturity are decisive.
- Fruit trees in blossom or new growth
- Blossom can be damaged between −1 and −2 °C. The same tree tolerates far lower temperatures while dormant.
- Leafy vegetables (lettuce, broccoli, cabbage)
- Tolerate brief light frost; prolonged frost damages leaf margins.
- Rain before harvest
- Cracking in cherry and plum; prolonged leaf wetness raises fungal disease risk in tomato and pepper. Rain shortly after spraying reduces effectiveness.
- Storm
- Spray drift starts above 15 km/h sustained wind. Fruit drop becomes likely at 50 km/h gusts; above 70 km/h, greenhouse film and support structures are at risk.
What this page is and is not
These values come from weather forecast models: they are predictions, not measurements, and they can be wrong. The frost assessment is a simple calculation based on temperature, cloud cover and wind — it does not know whether your orchard sits in a hollow or on a ridge, your soil moisture, or how hardy your variety is. Two plots in the same district can differ by several degrees. Decisions about heating, covering or spraying should be made with your own measurements and your agronomist, not from the figure shown here.
Source: Open-Meteo forecast models